Towards a World Currency

Towards a World Currency

By Garry Jacobs, Vice President, The Mother’s Service Society, Pondicherry

Presented to World Academy of Art & Science General Assembly

at the Session on Money & Global Governance: Financing Sustainable Development,
Hyderabad, October 19-20, 2008

The international financial instability precipitated by the Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis during the first half of 2008 is symptomatic of more fundamental changes in the global economy that can be permanently and effectively addressed only by the evolution of truly global monetary institutions. Like the proliferation of websites on the Internet, money and global financial assets are multiplying at an unprecedented rate and outstripping the authority and management capabilities of national governments. This article traces historically the origin of recent events in India and global financial markets to evolutionary changes in the world-at-large, examines the inherent instability and high costs of the present system, and shows how they argue strongly for the eventual emergence of a single world currency and world central bank.

For the past five years, the whole world praised India’s phenomenal economic achievements and its dazzling future prospects. Annual growth rates of 9 percent, surging corporate profits, burgeoning forex reserves, which have crossed $300 billion, and a stock market that rose more than 500 percent from January 2003 to December 2007. Then suddenly the tone changed and praise gave way to criticism, wild enthusiasm to metered restraint. A recent article in Business Week catalogs the Indian economy’s new-found ills—reeling inflation, fleeing foreign investment, slower growth and a 50 percent fall in the stock market back to the level it crossed eighteen months earlier.[2] In 2007 foreign investors transferred $19 billion to India. In the first six months of 2008, they withdrew $5.5 billion. During this same period the rupee depreciated 10 percent against the US dollar and 17 percent against the Euro. Suddenly the shine has been taken off India’s achievements and the government is being blamed where earlier it knew only praise.

Yet the reasons for this sudden dramatic reversal have very little to do with any action of the Government of India, its business sector or its people. The real source lies elsewhere, outside the country in the international arena where oil prices have tripled in five years and international food grain prices have nearly doubled since 2005. Spurred by the Sub prime Mortgage Crisis in the USA, the world’s financial markets have gone into a tailspin. Direct losses by the global banking system due to the Sub prime Crisis are upwards of $500 billion, but the destruction of wealth has been far greater. Bloomberg estimates global stock market losses of $11 trillion during the first half of 2008.[3] The net fall in real estate values in the USA has wiped out another $3.7 trillion of wealth in two years.[4] During the same period, the US dollar has lost 25 percent of its value against the Euro. Central banks and sovereign wealth funds are reducing their holding of US bonds. Markets are jittery. Some of the world’s leading commercial and investment banks, including Citibank, Merrill Lynch, Société Generale, and UBS are cutting their losses and refinancing their balance sheets. Delegates to a recent meeting of the UN Economic and Social Council expressed fears that the present crisis could wipe out a decade of solid growth in developing countries.[5] A recent report of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) states that the current turmoil in international financial markets is without precedent in the post-war period.[6] The growth rate of world economy, which was 3.8 percent in 2007, is expected to decline by 50 percent in 2008.[7]

What happened? Theories abound to explain the reasons for this sudden and catastrophic implosion. A slew of accusations have been cast, blaming recent events on the rapacious practices of international bankers, commodity speculators, multinational oil and food corporations, petroleum exporters, hedge funds, a debt-ridden consumption-addicted American public, or an increasingly energy-hungry China and India. But none of these contributing factors, either individually or in combination, are sufficient to explain what is happening in the world of international finance today. Factors such as these fail to take into account the momentous forces that are reshaping global financial markets. Finance is only one aspect of economy. Economy is only one dimension of society. The answer lies in the revolutionary changes that are transforming global society in general and the global economy in particular.

Globalization of Financial Markets

The term globalization is so often and widely applied that little thought is given to what it actually means. During the past millennium humanity has evolved from an organization of villages, tribes, city-states and petty kingdoms into an international system of nation-states. It is now in the process of moving from nation-states to a single, integrated global community. This movement is evidenced  virtually in every field and aspect of life, witness the proliferation of international institutions, the expansion of NATO and the European Union, the rising tide of international travel and immigration, the explosive growth of global communications and, since 1995, the exponential growth of the first truly global social organization, the World Wide Web.

The evolution of the global economy and international financial markets mimic this wider social movement. World trade in merchandise and services has grown four-fold since 1990 and has doubled in the past seven years.[8] Annual foreign direct investment has multiplied seven-fold since 1990 to exceed $1.5 trillion.[9] The cumulative stock of FDI tripled between 1980 and 1990 and has since risen another seven-fold to over $14 trillion. International bank lending rose from $265 billion in 1975 to $40 trillion in 2008.[10],[11] International financial flows, which most directly relate to the issue under discussion, rose from $12 trillion in 1980 to $167 trillion in 2006, a fourteen-fold increase in twenty-six years.

At the same time, the ownership of investible funds is changing rapidly. In 1990, foreign investors owned less than 10 percent of equities worldwide, compared with 25 percent today. While the US continues to represent roughly one-third of the world financial market, foreign investors now hold about sixty percent of all US Treasury securities, compared to twenty percent in 1990. They also own 25 percent of all US corporate bonds and 12 percent of corporate stocks. China alone holds $1.4 trillion in foreign reserves, most of it dollar denominated, Japan is holding about $900 billion, and the surge in oil prices has substantially deepened the investment portfolios of oil exporting nations. Foreign capital flows into the US almost quadrupled in the past eleven years and about a quarter of those funds now represent official flows from foreign governments. Global forex reserves have risen nearly ten-fold since 1990 to $7.5 trillion in early 2008.

The process of globalization dates back for centuries. But during the past seventy five years the speed and magnitude of the movement reached a critical stage where the existing social organization was no longer capable of managing the energies released by the process. The very nature of the nation-state system is both a source of that energy and a source of the instability generated when the magnitude of these energies exceed the capacity of national level institutions to constructively harness. This became evident politically when two devastating world wars demonstrated the gross inadequacies of a system of global governance based entirely on balance of power politics practiced by sovereign nation states, leading eventually to the evolution of the multilateral United Nations system that we have today; still patently inadequate, but far better equipped for coordinated action than the bilateral forms of coordination that preceded it. Militarily, the inherent instability arising from the nation-centered, competitive security system in place until 1950 precipitated the onset of the Cold War and the development of cooperative security alliances such as NATO, which eliminated war between erstwhile rivals in Western Europe but loomed as a competitive threat to nations excluded from its orbit. The tremendous hazards and waste engendered by a competitive security system compel us to recognize that for the system to be fully effective it must be inclusive and comprehensive. This has led to increasing calls for establishment of a unified European Army and a global military force under the auspices of the UN.

The same shift from independent to coordinated action has occurred in the field of finance. The evolution of global financial institutions is a work in progress, proceeding slowly and fitfully in an inevitable direction, but subject to the same types of convulsive and destabilizing disturbances that wracked the international political arena during the 20th century. The current national and international structure of financial institutions established to manage banking and investment activities is grossly inadequate to meet the challenges of a single global market, where more than $5.3 trillion in traditional and OTC foreign exchange transactions take place every day in search of short term profits wherever local conditions appear most attractive.

The international financial situation today is akin to that which prevailed in the USA in the first decade of the 20th century, when rapid industrial and commercial expansion flooded the nation’s capital markets with a huge surplus of money seeking lucrative returns in the stock market and commodity markets. In the absence of effective regulation, these funds were highly leveraged through loans by commercial banks and trust banks. The Panic of 1907 occurred because most of the surplus money was channeled into speculation rather than into productive investments that would stimulate employment, raise incomes and raise consumer demand. Spiraling equity prices lured even small investors to seek windfall profits in the market. The lesson of 1907 was not lost on the US government or the bankers. Six years later the US Federal Reserve system was established to regulate the banking industry and prevent speculative squandering of the nation’s savings. The system consisted of twelve region reserve banks presided over by representatives of the banking industry and intended to coordinate monetary policies for the nation under the supervision of a board in Washington.

In practice the decentralized structure of the Fed, functioning in almost complete independence from Washington, proved inadequate. Again in 1929 the same tendencies precipitated the Great Crash and plunged the nation into the Great Depression. Only then did laissez-faire capitalists, bankers and politicians become convinced of the need for effective centralized regulation of the banking and financial industries. The Securities and Exchange Commission was set up in 1934 and the Fed was restructured in 1935, concentrating most of the power in the hands of a Washington-based, government-appointed board of governors. The modified structure was dramatically more effective than its predecessor and provided a far more stable basis for domestic economic growth.

Bretton Woods & Its Aftermath

After World War II, the Bretton Woods Conference established a new system for international financial management based on the existing system of national central banks and supported by the IMF and the World Bank. Bretton Woods can be likened to the original constitution of the Fed. Its chief function was coordination, leaving almost all the power concentrated in the hands of national central banks. The fixed exchange rate system agreed upon provided a relatively stable basis for international financial management over the next twenty-five years. But by the late 1960s, the rapid growth of international financial activities exposed the inadequacies inherent in a nation-centric system, leading to abandonment of the gold standard by the USA and of the fixed rate exchange system by most countries in the early 1970s. The old system of exchange rate management broke down because it was inadequate to meet the needs of a rapidly expanding global economy. Thus, each country was left to fend for itself.[12]

The end of the Gold Standard was followed by financial deregulation of banks including offshore banking, globalization of the bond markets in the 1980s, globalization of trade under the WTO, banking and equity markets in the 1990s, most importantly, globalization of risks, so that today a breakdown in the system anywhere can generate powerful global shockwaves like those that bombarding India in mid-2008.

The 1970s marked the beginning of a new phase of increasing financial instability. The US dollar was devalued twice during the decade. The first oil crisis occurred in order to re-establish the international price of oil. The US economy suffered double-digit inflation and low growth, giving rise to a new phenomenon, stagflation. This was followed in succession by financial crisis in Latin America’s southern cone in 1979, the developing country debt crisis in 1982, the US Savings and Loan debacle in 1985, the bursting of the Japanese asset bubble and the ensuring financial crisis in 1989, Europe’s ERM crisis of 1992, the Mexican crisis of 1994, the East Asian crisis of 1997, the Russian crisis of 1998 and the Brazilian crisis of 1999.[13] Michael Hutchison and Ilan Neuberger estimated that currency crises in twenty-four emerging market economies during the years 1975-1997 were responsible for a 5-8 percent reduction in GDP output over a typical two-to-three year period, before returning to a normal growth rate.[14]  

The Wild West of Finance

Money is a form of social energy which grows by movement. The more rapidly it moves, the faster it grows. Organization transforms raw energy into productive power, the way a dam and hydroelectric power plant convert the kinetic movement of a raging river into useful electricity. When the organization is insufficient to contain the power generated, it can generate a short circuit, a breakdown or an explosion. Like other forms of energy, money requires an appropriate structure to harness and apply its power constructivelycity. When hE,="lelcivelycity.action cter"o incred the capty. When the org— to cle fE,= it movnsuring fWhen the org—designnd intenent toort neratedneyultid grown two devhe ed t likenemic this widefabful mid-2008.Mo 2008 i movemantiaidealadyan puculatiokdown rovemantiaid in the revold by the -statevitre resed fears that the presenwtodab9 ths, mit. MDP ouicianracting taichons imetem ismional ois was Monse ers. Six yeagendnces luivelycitars awnership ct inv in an ndard was foldnces luent. ndenciese trc Thepa new g equitnvulsisnditioly on baoverei movet. inatiefu WTO,piolllelsnated warource of the ins holdinational financial untries in tonomst decade rmathIn pract of iwth rate ationiveycrisis national financnkinaas cfifinsthe sh rate ationir itself.mg s:///D:/Pro, bus/ a Wort%20Pro, bus/ and %20rong>rl/GA%20PAPERS%20on Won Wo%20P RepNTS">PUB/GA%20>%20on Won Wo%20rnment%20r global g%20ernance: %20>nancing Su%20tainable De/Ses of%20 and %20 a World%20Paiai%20Bd%20nter"%20By Gar.doc#_ftn15">[="/"15adcrumb">mg s:///D:/Pro, bus/ a Wort%20Pro, bus/ and %20rong>rl/GA%20PAPERS%20on Won Wo%20P RepNTS">PUB/GA%20>%20on Won Wo%20rnment%20r global g%20ernance: %20>nancing Su%20tainable De/Ses of%20 and %20 a World%20Paiai%20Bd%20nter"%20By Gar.doc#_ftn15">]="/">Hup>[12][12]bregiodustISept03 to risi, “ation of Flibertly, globaindustnovainated speucaste enon. Interneoriaost coren hva ig rfntralized re of 1 its evolcompinnon. Interneoriaost ,ion. Oistates. Ikinaaent1 its evol country in the inters in th”[18] Hity in he e in,lnds wereita dsez-fair,ldnces r- rapidly en almoxr capaancia,ury, whennovainatehe hse national fhan ints,lnds llos/561ithe insintenentg$900 billnds llThe oUN Ehesel fins, either izatioext/hnge anzereshaping global financial Welician likenemiatinhe Wildeshaping globthe tuat, Thisstandard er the US Federan the USA, the wnational censts,"/?q=m fy, mstill bepindselitiesdoll invese and dend global financial bankstem of exchs,ljks ainsJ.P.Sub ge Brajol970s ma enerhe nationlation xpanse Yns iexpecl fcompaipitated the nks. Tl cricember ble-ng to term ofve invagnitude nerhe nationlation 975-11907ion is insufhht is stry andnds were highly lled into sp,hree yedroeks. sr the WTO,currencbilln witd global fng thei flows intg global ec ble-ng to pment of atend waste engeneport sel Exchatteset bubbleation of FSf the insFs/fo inat1907ion is insus. .sp; 

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